New York City FC vs Toronto FC: Preview, Prediction, H2H, Lineups & Team News

New York City FC vs Toronto FC: Full Match Preview, Prediction, Head to Head, Possible Lineups & Team News | MLS July 4, 2025.

 

Match Details

• Competition: Major League Soccer (MLS) – Regular Season

• Matchday: 20

• Date: Thursday, July 4, 2025

• Time: 12:30 AM (UK)

• Venue: Yankee Stadium, New York

The MLS returns with a compelling Eastern Conference clash as New York City FC host Toronto FC in a crucial Week 20 fixture. NYCFC aim to bounce back from a disappointing defeat to CF Montréal, while Toronto are brimming with confidence following a resounding 3-0 win over the Portland Timbers.

This encounter promises to be decisive for both teams’ playoff ambitions, as each continues to struggle for consistency in the 2025 campaign.

Current Form Overview

New York City FC Form:

• Last 6 MLS Matches: W – W – L – D – W – L

• Standing: 7th in Eastern Conference (last playoff spot)

• Points: 29

• Goals Scored: 29 | Goals Conceded: 27

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NYCFC remain frustratingly inconsistent this season, unable to string together a meaningful winning run. Despite a dominant 4-0 win against Atlanta United in Matchday 19, the Pigeons stumbled in Montreal last weekend, falling 1-0 in a lackluster display.

Toronto FC Form:

• Last 6 MLS Matches: W – L – L – L – D – W

• Standing: 13th in Eastern Conference

• Points: 18

• Goals Scored: 22 | Goals Conceded: 36

Toronto have experienced similar struggles, but their recent 3-0 home win against Portland will offer a glimmer of hope. That result marked only their second win of the season at BMO Field and their first clean sheet since early May.

Match Preview & Tactical Analysis

NYCFC: Fortress at Home, Flawed on the Road

Pascal Jansen’s men have made Yankee Stadium a difficult place to visit, securing seven home wins – joint-most in the MLS. However, despite their home strength, NYCFC have been vulnerable early in games, conceding the opening goal in five home matches this season.

The inconsistency lies in their offensive rhythm. While players like Julián Fernández and Alonso Martínez have shown attacking flair, NYCFC often fail to carry momentum from one match to the next. This trend has led to an undesirable record: after each of their last four wins, they failed to score in the following game.

Toronto FC: Traveling Strong, but Still Flawed

Robin Fraser’s Toronto FC are quietly finding form on the road. The Reds have collected points in three straight away games, conceding one goal or fewer in each. Their victory over Portland featured goals from Tyrese Spicer and Alonso Coello, and showcased an increasingly stable midfield.

Still, Toronto have long struggled in New York. They haven’t earned a regular-season away win against an NYC-based club since 2020. To upset the odds this time, they’ll need to show more assertiveness in attack, especially in the first half where most of their wins have historically come from leading at halftime.

Head-to-Head Record: NYCFC vs Toronto FC

• Total Meetings: 25

• NYCFC Wins: 11

• Toronto FC Wins: 8

• Draws: 6

• Last Meeting: April 2025 – NYCFC 1-0 Toronto FC

NYCFC have enjoyed recent dominance over Toronto, winning five straight matches in all competitions. In their last meeting at Yankee Stadium, NYCFC came from behind to secure a 2-1 win. Kevin O’Toole and Santiago Rodríguez (now departed) scored on that occasion.

Toronto’s last victory in New York dates back to September 2020 when they defeated NYCFC 1-0 at Red Bull Arena during COVID-related venue changes.

Team News & Injury Updates

New York City FC

• OUT:

  • Keaton Parks (Leg injury)

  • Malachi Jones (Leg injury)

  • Matt Freese (On Gold Cup duty with the USA)

• DOUBTFUL:

  • Alonso Martínez – May return from Gold Cup after USA’s elimination

• IN FOCUS:

  • Alonso Martínez has been NYCFC’s most dangerous forward this season and could play a key role if fit.

  • Julian Fernández and Andres Jasson could also feature prominently in attack.

Toronto FC

• OUT:

  • Federico Bernardeschi, Jonathan Osorio, Zane Monlouis, Henry Wingo (All lower-body injuries)

• DOUBTFUL:

  • Kobe Franklin (Ankle)

  • Richie Laryea (Gold Cup – could return)

• IN FOCUS:

  • Alonso Coello – Commanded midfield vs. Portland, adds structure and pressing.

  • Tyrese Spicer – Pacey winger, scored last time out and provides wide attacking thrust.

Predicted Lineups

New York City FC Starting XI (4-2-3-1):

Romero
Tanasijevic – Martins – Haak – Risa
Perea – Moralez
Ojeda – Fernández – Wolf
Martínez

Toronto FC Starting XI (4-1-4-1):

Johnson
Thompson – Long – Rosted – Petretta
Coello
Corbeanu – Etienne – Kerr – Spicer
Brynhildsen

Match Prediction: NYCFC 2-0 Toronto FC

While both teams have struggled for consistent form, New York City FC’s strength at home – coupled with Toronto’s poor track record in New York – makes the Pigeons favorites. Toronto’s thin squad, plagued by injuries and absences, may find it tough to cope with NYCFC’s high pressing and ball control in the Bronx.

Prediction: NYCFC 2-0 Toronto FC
Goalscorers: Alonso Martínez, Julián Fernández
Clean Sheet: Romero (NYCFC)

Key Stats to Know

• NYCFC have won 7 of 10 home games in 2025.

• Toronto FC have scored just 6 goals in 8 away matches this season.

• Toronto have not beaten NYCFC in their last 5 encounters.

• NYCFC have kept 5 clean sheets at home this season.

• Toronto have earned points in 3 consecutive away matches – a season-high streak.

Players to Watch

Alonso Martínez (NYCFC)

Martínez has become the focal point of NYCFC’s attack in 2025, offering pace, composure, and finishing ability. His ability to exploit defensive gaps makes him a major threat to Toronto’s backline.

Tyrese Spicer (Toronto FC)

One of the rising stars of Toronto’s campaign, Spicer’s dribbling and creativity could be key if the Reds aim to cause an upset. He scored last weekend and will look to continue that momentum.

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How to Watch

• UK Viewers: Apple TV – MLS Season Pass (subscription required)

• US Viewers: Available on Apple TV MLS Season Pass

• Canada: TSN, RDS, and Apple TV

Kick-off is set for 12:30 AM BST on Friday, July 4, 2025.

Final Thoughts

With playoff ambitions on the line, this Eastern Conference clash is more than just a mid-season battle – it’s a potential season-defining moment. NYCFC must defend their home dominance and exploit Toronto’s vulnerabilities, while the Reds are desperate to break a five-year drought on New York soil.

Expect an intense affair with high stakes, but all signs point to a narrow but professional home win for NYCFC.