Finland vs Poland Preview: Team News, H2H Stats, Lineups & Prediction

Finland vs Poland Preview – 2026 World Cup Qualifier.

As the European 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers continue, Group G’s second-placed Finland prepare to host group leaders Poland in Helsinki on Tuesday, June 10, 2025, at the iconic Helsingin Olympiastadion. Kick-off is scheduled for 19:45 UK time.

The match pits the underdog Finns, ranked 69th globally, against a confident Polish side sitting atop the group after two wins from two. With Finland still seeking their first-ever World Cup final appearance and Poland aiming to cement their lead, this is shaping up to be a pivotal fixture in Group G.

Competitive Context

The expanded 48-team World Cup format has reinvigorated hopes for nations like Finland. So far, under new coach Jacob Friis—who took charge after Finland’s relegation to League C in the Nations League—the team has delivered mixed results: a 1-0 win over Malta and a 2-2 draw with Lithuania, but a 2-0 home defeat to the Netherlands last weekend. Those outcomes placed Finland second in the table, but one more loss could derail their qualifying hopes.

Poland, by contrast, have regained form under Michal Probierz. Following a poor run that included relegation in the Nations League, Poland opened qualifying brilliantly with 1-0 wins over Lithuania and Malta, keeping their first clean sheets in a year. They briefly faced Scotland in a 1-2 loss in the NL but rebounded with a 2-0 friendly win over Moldova last Friday. Leading Group G by two points, Poland are determined to maintain momentum.

H2H Record & Historical Results

Past encounters heavily favor Poland. In their last two meetings, both friendlies, Finland conceded 10 goals (5-1 in October 2020 and 5-0 in March 2016). Overall, in six matches since 2006, Poland have three wins, Finland one, and two draws. Historical dominance makes Finland’s weak recent record (no wins, nine goals conceded in two head-to-heads) a grim indicator of what lies ahead.

Recent Form

Finland (all competitions): L–D–W–L–L
Finland (WC qualifying): D vs Lithuania, W vs Malta, L vs Netherlands

Poland (all competitions): W–W–L–W–D
Poland (WC qualifying): W vs Malta, W vs Lithuania

Sofascore and FootyStats data show Poland averaging 1.4 goals per game away, maintaining a 1.6 xG, while Finland average just 0.9 goals per game at home with a 0.97 xG.

Team News & Probable Lineups

Finland

Coach Friis may tweak his eleven, possibly shifting players like Glen Kamara, Benjamin Källman, or Fredrik Jensen into more prominent roles following their loss to the Netherlands . Veteran captain and centurion goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky is assured of a start, while young winger Casper Terho, recently capped, is expected to feature somewhere in the midfield.

Top scorer Joel Pohjanpalo, who followed Hradecky with crucial goals, is likely to lead the attack, with Oliver Antman providing support.

Predicted Finland XI:
Hradecky – Alho, Hoskonen, Tenho, Uronen – Kamara, Kairinen, Lod, Jensen, Antman – Pohjanpalo

Poland

Star striker Robert Lewandowski has withdrawn due to fatigue. Krzysztof Piątek or Adam Buksa are in line to take up the striking role. Karol Świderski will likely operate alongside them, following his leading role in the Moldova friendly. Matty Cash and Nicola Zalewski are expected on the wings within a 3-5-2 formation, while Piotr Zielinski captains from midfield after a squad rest in the friendly .

Predicted Poland XI:
Skorupski – Wieteska, Bednarek, Kiwior – Cash, Moder, Zielinski, Szymański, Zalewski – Świderski, Piątek

Tactical Match-Up

Finland’s Strengths & Tactics

Finland remain defensively organized but lack fluency in attack. They aim to stay compact, pressing sporadically, but have shown signs of vulnerability in central defence. Their home setting and Hradecky’s form offer some confidence, but in attack, they often rely on quick transitions involving Antman and Pohjanpalo.

Poland’s Strategy

Poland employ a confident, proactive formation with Sala’s 3-5-2. Without Lewandowski, they still pack firepower—Świderski, Piątek, Zalewski, Zielinski—capable of pressing high and creating overloads in midfield. With a tight defence and effective transition play, they present a well-rounded threat.

Statistical Insights & Odds

Bookmakers give Finland approximately 43% chance of victory, Poland 33%, with draws at 25%. First-half goals have occurred consistently: both teams have scored in the opening 45 minutes of recent games . Matches have typically seen 3 goals on average, with over 2.5 goals scored in the last meetings .

FootyStats suggests Poland overperform against xG, scoring 1.4 goals per match from a 1.6 xG average.

Prediction

Finland’s aspirations of a first-ever World Cup finals are at risk. Without their star striker and with defensive instability, they must rely on home advantage. Poland, in contrast, possess the tactical discipline, attacking depth, and defensive stability to exploit Finland’s weaknesses.

Analysts forecast a close game, leaning toward an away win. Our model predicts Poland may edge ahead with a 1-0 victory.

Match Importance

With five matches remaining in the group (including return legs), each fixture is pivotal. Finland must aim for consistency to fight for second. Poland, with the pursuit of a historic 10th World Cup qualification, view this match as an opportunity to consolidate their top-group status and take control early.

Live Coverage & After-Match Outlook

You can follow live coverage on ESPN, TNT Sports, and online platforms like SofaScore and Wiseloaded. Post-match analysis will focus on:

Did Poland solidify their lead with three points?
Can Finland bounce back or are they in danger of drifting from top-two?
Tactical takeaways: formation adjustments, individual performances.
Player ratings, man-of-the-match candidates, and key stats: possession, shots, defensive transitions.

Over the coming weeks, Finland faces Poland away and Lithuania home, while Poland will play Netherlands and Lithuania away, setting the tone for qualification trajectories.

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Final Word

Finland vs Poland is more than a qualifier; it’s a test of ambition. Finland strive for history while Poland aims to solidify dominance. Tactical nuance will define the match: whether Finland can contain Poland’s attack and whether Poland can maintain intensity without their talisman. Expect a tightly contested battle—with Poland looking to secure their position toward Canada–Mexico–USA 2026.

Predicted Scoreline: Finland 0–1 Poland – Poland maintain their lead, but Finland remain competitive.